India’s Russian Oil Savings Wiped Out as Trump Tariffs Threaten $37 Billion Hit.

India’s Russian Oil Savings Wiped Out as Trump Tariffs Threaten $37 Billion Hit

India’s fiscal cushion from discounted Russian oil imports, estimated at $17 billion in savings, has been effectively neutralized by U.S. tariff measures under Donald Trump, which could cost the economy as much as $37 billion this year.

India’s strategy of buying heavily discounted Russian crude over the past two years gave the country a rare energy windfall, lowering import costs by an estimated $17 billion. However, trade experts warn that advantage may vanish as steep tariffs announced by the Trump administration on Indian exports begin to bite.

The duties, targeting a wide array of sectors including textiles, engineering goods, and IT services, are projected to cost India approximately $37 billion this fiscal year if fully imposed. Economists say this would more than offset the relief India secured by turning to Moscow for affordable oil amid Western sanctions.

“India managed to cushion its current account thanks to cheaper Russian barrels, but the tariff shock from Washington could undo all those savings in one blow,” said a senior trade analyst in New Delhi.

Officials in the Ministry of Commerce are reportedly weighing responses, including potential appeals at the World Trade Organization and accelerated efforts to diversify export markets. Yet with the U.S. remaining India’s largest single export destination, analysts caution that options are limited.

The development underlines the delicate balance in India’s foreign policy: pursuing energy security through closer oil ties with Russia, while simultaneously depending on the United States as a key trade and strategic partner.

If the tariff dispute escalates, India could face a double bind enjoying cheaper energy imports but losing out on crucial export revenue, threatening growth projections for the current year.